Year 2 · Mathematics · Probability
Chance in everyday life
Using words such as will happen, might happen and will not happen to talk about familiar events, such as the sun setting or rain tomorrow.
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These lessons were written around Australian Curriculum strands and matched to UK year groups by age (Year 1 is the year a child turns 6 in England). They are not mapped to the National Curriculum in England or the curricula of Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, so check them against your own plans.
Learning goals
Learners will
- Use the words 'will happen', 'might happen' and 'will not happen' to describe familiar events.
- Sort everyday events by how likely they are.
- Explain choices using what they know about the world.
Success looks like
- I can say if something will happen, might happen or will not happen.
- I can sort pictures or cards into those three groups.
- I can explain why I chose a group.
The big idea
We talk about chance every day: 'It might rain', 'We will have dinner tonight', 'A dog will not fly.' This lesson gives children three simple ways to describe how likely something is.
Something that will happen is sure. The sun will set tonight. Tomorrow will come after today.
Something that might happen could happen, but we cannot be sure. It might rain tomorrow. We might see a bird on our walk. A tossed coin might land on heads.
Something that will not happen cannot happen. A cat will not turn into a bus. You will not grow wings and fly to school.
Make event cards together, with a drawing or a few words on each. Read each card and ask your child to put it under the right label. The most important part is the reason: 'How do you know?'
Some events depend on where and when. 'It will be cold tomorrow' might be very likely in one place and season, and very unlikely in another. Accept sensible answers when your child can explain their thinking.
- Will happen: the sun will rise tomorrow.
- Might happen: it might rain tomorrow.
- Will not happen: a fish will walk to the shops.
Worked examples
Sorting the sun
Is 'The sun will set tonight' something that will happen, might happen or will not happen?
- Think about every day: the sun always sets in the evening.
- We are sure it will happen again tonight.
Answer: It will happen.
Sorting the weather
Is 'It will rain tomorrow' something that will happen, might happen or will not happen?
- Think about the weather: some days it rains and some days it does not.
- We cannot be sure about tomorrow.
Answer: It might happen.
Picking from a bag
A bag has only red blocks in it. Will you pick a blue block?
- Look inside: every block is red.
- There is no blue block to pick.
Answer: Picking a blue block will not happen.
Practice check
Have a go, then check your answers. Each answer comes with an explanation.
Answer guide for parents
A dog will start talking in words. Is this will happen, might happen or will not happen?
will not happen — Dogs cannot talk in words, so this will not happen.
Tomorrow will come after today. Is this will happen, might happen or will not happen?
will happen — Tomorrow always comes after today, so this will happen.
You will see a bird on your walk today. Is this will happen, might happen or will not happen?
might happen — You often see birds, but you cannot be sure, so this might happen.
You toss a coin. Will it land on heads, or might it land on heads?
might — A coin can land on heads or tails, so heads might happen but is not sure.
A bag has 5 green blocks and nothing else. You pick one without looking. What will happen?
You will pick a green block — Every block is green, so you will pick a green block.
Write one word to finish: 'An elephant will fit inside a teacup.' This ___ not happen.
will — An elephant is far too big for a teacup, so this will not happen.
Which event will NOT happen?
A rock will float up into the sky by itself — Rocks do not float up into the sky by themselves, so this will not happen.
Which event MIGHT happen?
A friend might visit this weekend — A friend could visit, but we cannot be sure, so it might happen.
Watch out for
- Thinking something they really want is sure to happen ('We will go to the park'). Talk about what could stop it, such as rain.
- Believing anything that has not happened before will not happen. Discuss events that are possible even if rare, like seeing a rainbow.
- Treating 'might happen' as 'won't happen'. Explain that 'might' means it could go either way.
Tips for parents
- Use chance words in daily life: 'We might have pasta tonight', 'It will get dark after dinner.'
- Always ask 'Why do you think that?' — the reason matters more than the label.
- Accept different answers for events that depend on place or season if your child gives a sensible reason.
Go further
- Make a 'will, might, will not' poster with drawings of events from your child's own life.
- Toss a coin 10 times and record heads or tails to see that each toss might go either way.
- Read a favourite story and stop to ask what will, might or will not happen next.
About 30 minutes
You'll need
- Paper cut into cards for writing or drawing events
- Three labels: 'will happen', 'might happen', 'will not happen'
- A coin and a small bag with a few coloured blocks
- Crayons or pencils
Key words
- chance
- How likely it is that something will happen.
- will happen
- Something that is sure to happen.
- might happen
- Something that could happen, but we are not sure.
- will not happen
- Something that cannot happen.
- predict
- Make a careful guess about what will happen.
Still tricky?
For parents
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